A cooling job market, the latest AI shock and a chilly winter for bitcoin, gold and silver.
It’s Valentine’s Day next week and there are new “love in this economy” sayings being added to the Sweethearts conversation heart line-up. Hopefully you all remember and perhaps enjoy those small, heart-shaped, pastel-colored sugar candies with messages that used to read “KISS ME” or “LOVE YOU.” Apparently, the new hearts of 2026 have sayings like: “SPLIT RENT,” “SHARE LOGN,” “CAR POOL,” “BUY N BULK” and “COOK FOR 2.” So much for romance.
Maybe the Spangler Candy Company is not wrong to lean into practical, economically sensitive messaging, especially in times like these when the job market is seemingly getting worse. While we did not benefit from an on-time release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey given the brief government shutdown (that release will now come next week), it was reported by the influential Challenger, Gray & Christmas survey that U.S. employers laid off 108,435 in the month of January, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. Those numbers were the highest for any January since 2009.
Companies announced only 5,306 new hires, also the lowest for a January since 2009, which is when Challenger began tracking the data. Job openings fell sharply in December to 6.54 million, their lowest level since September 2020. Available jobs are now down by more than 900,000 just since October 2025. Last, but not the least of our worries, the survey showed that planned hiring dropped 13% from January 2025 and was off 49% from December.
High-profile layoff announcements have also boosted fears of wider damage in the labor market. Amazon, UPS and Dow Inc. have all recently announced sizeable job cuts. Indeed, transportation had the most layoffs from a sector standpoint in January, due largely to UPS’ plan to lay off more than 30,000 workers. Technology was second because of Amazon’s intention to eliminate 16,000 mostly corporate-level jobs.
Is it because of AI? There is mixed evidence of that. While CEOs have touted how they are using AI to streamline operations, the reality is some of these layoffs reflect slowing consumer demand and cost cutting to appeal to investors. The Federal Reserve recently released a report saying the overall impact from AI on labor has been “small and subtle,” while Yale Budget Lab analysis of U.S. labor market data from ChatGPT’s November 2022 release through late 2025 concluded the share of workers in jobs with high, medium and low AI exposure has remained “remarkably steady.” Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) layoffs were cited as the biggest factor in 2025 labor market results.
Nevertheless, anxiety about AI’s impacts are here to stay, and now concern over AI overbuild and lack of a path to monetization is also causing market angst.
This week, tech and communication services companies took it on the chin as previous market darlings plunged while AI infrastructure firms rallied. AMD was among the worst performers, despite beating expectations on revenue and earnings per share, but apparently, they did not beat revenue enough to satisfy investors, especially with the stock trading at such high levels.
Also spooking investors this week was a new agentic AI release by Anthropic, Claude Cowork plugins, which appear to successfully and autonomously perform complex professional tasks that could potentially replace entire categories of software and services. So, in addition to fears of overbuild and monetization worries, investors are also starting to discern that AI will create both winners and losers and are placing their bets accordingly.
While I’m trying not to sound as old-fashioned as a conversation heart, it is probably a good thing that markets are starting 2026 by reshuffling the decks a bit. We are seeing a lift in companies that had been left by the side of the road as investors seek value and opportunity for growth in a broader range of industries and market segments.
At the same time, gold, silver and bitcoin all continue to have price resets, with bitcoin’s the most punishing—it’s dropped over 50% since its October 2025 peak. Bitcoin seems to be decoupling from its thesis of “digital gold” to trade more like a high-beta tech stock in recent months and, for the moment, gold and silver are being spurned in favor of cash and U.S. Treasurys. Between a long-term government shutdown being averted and President Trump’s pick of a potentially hawkish Fed chair in Kevin Warsh to replace Jay Powell, investors flocked to less expensive, old standbys for their safety.
Between decidedly unsexy conversation hearts messages to cooling market action this week, February is so far reminding us that sometimes it is good to approach both life and our portfolios with a practical mindset. While not quite as blunt as a “SPLIT RENT” or “BUY N BULK” message on a heart, we think “DIVERSIFY” is our version of that sentiment. We believe it is a tried-and-true winner when investors buy in and work with their advisor to embrace a diversified approach with their wealth. Let’s continue to talk about how we should not sell equities in your portfolios and try to time the markets but instead rotate and expand the opportunity set so your heart reads “SUCCESS.”
And for all those still reading, GO PATS!
Written by a human.