The latest on markets, inflation and a powerful reminder on the importance of planning.
Stock market gains are being pared today in this holiday-shortened week, thanks to sticky inflation data, tough earnings reports and even tougher talk on tariffs. Shares of large technology and communication services companies led the decline, while U.S. companies with exposure to international business faced pressure. Energy also slipped as crude oil prices sagged on news of a welcome ceasefire in Lebanon. The bond market seems to have stabilized as yields reached high enough levels to where investors want to buy Treasuries again.
While the Thanksgiving holiday is upon us, it was hardly a low-key week in terms of news flow. Coming just after investors on Monday celebrated the nomination of successful hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary, president-elect Donald Trump said Canada and Mexico were facilitating flows of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the U.S. and declared he would levy tariffs of 25% on imports of all goods from the two countries after taking office. He also promised to levy additional tariffs of 10% on Chinese imports, which already face tariffs of around 15%, also citing fentanyl production. It was a stark reminder of the risks to the economy and markets from Trump’s fondness for protectionism. It called to mind many episodes during his first term when trade conflicts led to sharp selloffs in the stock market. Investors now, however, are taking a wait-and-see approach to his trade policy, wagering he won’t come close to following through on all his warnings.
Traders are also parsing a written account of the Fed’s meeting in early November. The meeting summary showed that Fed officials discussed potentially slowing down or pausing interest rate cuts if progress was not made with lowering inflation. To wit, today’s reading on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE), showed year-over-year inflation of 2.3%, while the core PCE rose 2.8%. Inflation remains sticky, right at a moment when tariffs are being threatened and anxiety over the inflationary blowback builds.
Other economic data was likewise conflicted, with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index higher while new home sales plunged. Third quarter GDP was confirmed at a 2.8% growth rate, but personal consumption was marked down slightly from 3.7% to 3.5% in a possible sign the consumer is growing fatigued of carrying the economy. Durable goods orders were dismal, falling -0.2% in October and reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing economy.
Earnings from retailers like Best Buy and Kohl’s were terrible. Macy’s reported it would delay the release of its earnings after it discovered an employee intentionally hid $154 million of expenses over several years. Overall, tariff worries dogged some semiconductor, energy, retail, industrials, automaker and materials stocks this week, in a likely premonition of what is to come after inauguration.
As you turn to your ovens and welcome guests to your tables, we thank you for our relationship and send our sincere best wishes to you and your families in this season of gratitude. It was inspiring to see Warren Buffett pass another $1.1 billion of Berkshire Hathaway stock to his family foundations this week, and comment about the importance of planning as he reflected about his mortality and how “father time always wins.” He went on to offer some powerful reminders about the importance of getting your affairs in order, including avoiding dynastic wealth accumulation, being grateful for your good fortune, being frugal, and investing to compound. Buffett also suggested telling your kids about your plans for the future and telling your kids you are proud of them. Well said as always, Warren, well said.
Thank you for your interest in our investment commentary and for your relationship with us. If you would like to speak personally with a member of your advisory team, please call 833.RWA.PLAN (833.792.7526).