Plus, a war of words, earnings outlooks, a job market update and an invitation.
My son graduated from high school today. After crossing the stage, his smile was as brilliant as the sun beating down upon us when he looked over at me, diploma in hand, his eyes saying, “look at me, I did it.” Those same big brown eyes have sought my approval countless times over the last 18 years, at milestones too many to name, and in all the quiet moments a mother holds close in her heart. Each time they look to me, my breath catches in my throat. Believe in me, be proud of me, love me, they say. I always will.
Graduations remind us of the progression of life and highlight a journey from one level to the next. Caps, gowns and diplomas mark a special moment in that journey but learning and growth are continuous processes. However your financial journey started, your knowledge and confidence are hopefully building even as the complexity of your affairs may be doing the same. Validation of your plan and the assumptions and goals are important, as are those moments when it is clear it is time to mark a new level or a new stage. What an honor it is to be on that journey with you and offer our care, concern, support and affirmation.
At the ceremony, one speaker read the timeless poem “If” by Rudyard Kipling as encouragement to the graduates. The beginning part of the poem always grabs my attention: “If you can keep your head when all about you/Are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you/But make allowance for their doubting too.” Could anything serve us better in 2025 than Kipling’s suggested balance of self-assurance and humility?
This week’s twists and turns featured a war of words between self-assured former first buddies President Trump and Elon Musk when Musk was critical of Trump’s tax bill. The feud escalated over social media, leading Trump to suggest he’d cut government subsidies and contracts to Musk’s companies like Tesla and SpaceX even as Musk countered that Trump would not have won the election without his help and was ungrateful. Musk also threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft used by U.S. astronauts, and he alleged bombshell evidence about Trump’s involvement with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Tesla stock tumbled in reaction, pulling the major market indices down. Earnings reports from Crowdstrike and Broadcom were also in the mix, showing stellar first quarter profits but weak forecasts, which made investors uneasy. These reports were coupled with a May reading on service sector activity published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that showed contraction and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book that includes reports from the 12 Fed districts, which indicated that “economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report.”
Then came May’s employment report, released today, showing the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in the month, following a downward revision of 147,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. This data reflects a steady, albeit slowing, labor market, and markets are rallying on the news as we go to print. For now, employees seem to be staying put, employers are holding steady, and everyone is trying to figure out what will happen next with tariffs and tax policy.
If we look to the future, there is a growing consensus that a second-half slowdown is brewing following a pull-forward of consumer and business demand thanks to tariff turmoil. For now, the Federal Reserve remains on hold with changes to monetary policy, citing the inflation risks of tariffs and the strong labor market to justify their resistance to interest rate cuts even as other central banks like the European Central Bank made headlines this week for cutting their benchmark policy rate. As such, the yield curve remains steep, with longer-term bond yields much higher than short-term ones as bond market vigilantes await the outcome of the “big, beautiful tax bill” to understand the future of our national debt and deficit spending.
With that backdrop, investors are on edge, knowing that in the short run, we face uncertainty in tariffs and taxes, and in the long run, unprecedented technological, cultural and political shifts. The foundation of who we are and what we stand for is changing. While there is opportunity in those transitions, there is also risk, and that backdrop is casting a shadow of doubt over fundamentals of stock prices and bond yields even as the “fear of missing out” or “FOMO” on growth and good returns remains.
It has never been clearer that now is a time for balance, for diversification and for strong communication and personalized planning to manage those shifts.
In closing, I will leave you with some thoughts from another graduation speech that made headlines this week, uttered by none other than the persistently kind and optimistic Kermit the Frog. Kermit offered the commencement address to the graduating class of 2025 at the University of Maryland, alma mater to “The Muppets” creator Jim Henson. He advised, “Rather than jumping over someone to get what you want, consider reaching out your hand and taking the leap side by side, because life is better when we leap together.”
We can only hope our global leaders and Congressional lawmakers will take that advice in this critical moment; to do otherwise will only exacerbate our challenges and leave a burden for future generations that none of us want. Congratulations to my beloved Jack (let’s see if he reads it all the way to the end!), as well as to all the young people celebrating their graduations and to all of you who love them so.
Thank you for your interest in our weekly investment commentary. If you would like to speak personally with a member of your advisory team, please call 833.RWA.PLAN (833.792.7526).
P.S. You’re invited to attend our upcoming webinar, Stuck in the Middle: Expert Strategies for the Sandwich Generation, on Wednesday, June 11 at 1 PM ET. We’ve partnered with health care advisory firm Wellworth and will share insights into caring for aging parents while also raising your family. Click here to register—I hope to see you there!