In his July 2026 market update, JP highlights the stock market’s strong year-to-date performance, noting the S&P 500 is already on pace to match its long-term average annual gain.

He explains that markets have rallied despite mixed inflation data. While consumer inflation cooled in June, producer inflation remained elevated, creating potential pressure on corporate margins. Oil price volatility tied to the ongoing U.S.-Iran war has further complicated the outlook. With inflation still a concern and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh focused on price stability, interest rates could potentially remain higher for longer.

JP also discusses the evolution of the AI story, as companies that support AI infrastructure have recently benefited from broader adoption. He notes that both equity performance and credit conditions will be important to watch as AI investment continues.

JP concludes with his key areas of focus for the second half of 2026: inflation, corporate margins, Fed policy and AI spending.