Remembering the heroes and victims of 9/11, plus the latest on bonds, the Fed and AI.
Twenty-five years ago, 2,977 innocent people lost their lives in terrorist attacks that changed the world forever. I don’t think any of us who were alive then will ever forget that day, or the days that followed.
What I remember most was the heavy silence afterward, getting on an empty train to head home after my manager said without confidence that our team should probably leave our high-rise building before adding a gruff reminder to be safe. A train that normally was packed like a cattle car was empty, nobody was out walking, and only a few cars dotted the roads. The sky was silent, as all planes were grounded.
I remember waiting in the longest line I had ever seen to give blood the next day. Years later, the line for the COVID-19 vaccine was not dissimilar, but the feeling was different somehow, maybe more hopeful. The weeks and years that followed 9/11 brought forward stories of victims and heroes, and so many lives cut short by an unspeakable act of violence.
One of my favorite stories is that of Welles Crowther, the 24-year-old son of a firefighter (and fellow Boston College graduate!) working as an equity trader in the South Tower, who covered his face with the red bandana that his dad gave him years before and saved 18 lives before the building collapsed around him.
He continued up when everyone else went down.
Welles is a legend around these parts, and rightfully so. This week, he was posthumously honored by President Trump with the highest civilian honor, the Presidential Medal of Freedom. He is a reminder of how one person can make a powerful difference.
We have been changed in so many ways by 9/11, a day of such profound loss and despair that it still feels unfathomable. Today I got up early and gave blood at Fenway Park, at the annual 9/11 Day of Remembrance Blood Drive. Years later, people are in a different headspace. Everyone on their phones (very different than 2001!), chattering with their friends, dreaming of weekend plans, remarking on the fall weather, bemoaning the Red Sox current slump, and wondering about the fate of A.J. Brown’s ankle. Life goes on. We remember. We forget.
If I sound a bit melancholy this week, I guess maybe I am. I strive to provide you with a few nuggets of wisdom and context about economic and market news, while offering encouraging reminders about the importance of making a plan. Most of the time, that is good advice. But sometimes the even better advice is to remember that every day is a gift, and loss may come whether we are ready or not.
Turning to today, markets are focused on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates or hold tight. Oil traded above $100 a barrel amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran this week, following reports that the U.S. has destroyed 10 Iranian tankers in response to attacks on U.S. Navy warships. With uneven job growth, AI disruption, polarized politics, swelling national debt, and hot inflation, the path forward has challenges.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller extolled a patient approach to monetary policy, saying this week, “give disinflation a chance.” Bond markets were not moved by that plea, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond’s yield held close to 5% and global bond yields surged.
Stock markets wobbled off their all-time highs in the holiday-shortened trading week, keying off energy prices and inflation reports. Still, equities remain remarkably checked given there is not an expectation of recession despite the challenges.
Inflation and slowing growth seem like small worries in the context of the week’s disturbing AI headlines, which included the resignation of Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon. He described the company and rival OpenAI as “gambling with our lives.” He said he believes AI could “kill us all by the end of the decade.” His sentiments were then echoed in some respects by Evan Hubinger, Anthropic’s alignment lead, who said he expects there is a more than 10% chance of that happening. Workers at both companies joined the chorus in surprisingly alarmist ways, calling for the pace of AI development to slow and for Congress and corporate leaders to act.
We need someone to choose to go up the stairs and save lives. And as market action is showing us in these weeks, there is a point we are nearly reaching where the cutthroat world of capitalism and competition in the race for AI dominance comes to a breaking point. What good will it be to win if humanity loses? Is it worth it to eke out a few more dollars of profit at the expense or risk of losing ourselves? Are we at the line, or have we already crossed it?
RWA honors the lives of the 2,977 lives lost in the 9/11/2001 attacks, the brave first responders, and the people who later died from 9/11-related illnesses. May they rest in peace, and may we never forget their lives lived and lost so tragically on this 25th anniversary.
Written by a human.