Why Markets Are Near Highs Despite Uncertainty
Market and Economic Outlook
The last several weeks have been a reminder that markets can absorb a great deal of unsettling news and still stay focused on the bigger picture. Conflict in the Middle East, swings in oil prices, and questions about inflation and interest rates have all created understandable uncertainty. Even so, U.S. stocks have remained near record highs, suggesting that investors are still paying close attention to the fundamentals: economic growth, corporate earnings and a labor market that continues to hold up well.
However, it’s natural to be unsettled when events are moving fast and ambiguity is high. Markets can react quickly when new developments create fresh anxiety, especially when energy prices are involved. But short-term volatility is different from a lasting shift in the outlook. When the headlines feel loud, it can help to return to a simpler question: Has anything truly changed in terms of your goals, your time horizon, or the role your portfolio plays in your life?
The Price of Energy in Flux
Energy is among the biggest areas where geopolitics could affect the economy over the next few months. Renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire has already led to sharp moves in oil prices, and energy costs tend to ripple outward. Higher oil prices can show up at the gas pump, in transportation costs, in airline fares, and eventually in the prices of everyday goods and services.
Consumer inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve wants, but it is also far below the peaks reached a few years ago. In other words, it is still a challenge, but not an uncontrolled one. The question now is whether higher energy prices prove temporary or stay elevated long enough to put broader pressure on everyday costs. That matters for consumer spending and the economy, and it also poses a quandary for Fed policymakers.
It’s also worth noting that the broad U.S. stock market is somewhat less directly tied to energy than many overseas markets, and many foreign economies are more dependent on imported oil and gas. That helps explain why some foreign markets can be more vulnerable to an oil shock, even when U.S. markets remain relatively resilient. It does not make the U.S. immune, but it does provide some perspective: Not every jump in oil prices has the same impact on every part of the market.
A Patient Fed?
The Federal Reserve still appears to be in wait-and-see mode. Inflation remains above target, but employment has held up well enough that policymakers do not seem to be under immediate pressure to cut rates. For now, the most likely near-term outcome appears to be patience rather than action.
At the same time, Fed leadership will be changing soon. Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15, and Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed him—the confirmation process is ongoing. Warsh has signaled that he may bring a different style and emphasis to the role, including more openness to lower rates and a new approach to how the Fed communicates. Still, any shift should be kept in perspective. Monetary policy is set by committee, not by one person alone, and the Fed’s core mission remains the same: balancing stable prices with maximum employment.
Is Recession a Concern?
Recession speculation is on the rise, and some of that concern is understandable. Oil shocks have a history of slowing growth, and higher prices can put pressure on both households and businesses. But analysts laying higher recession odds is not the same thing as an imminent recession. The most recent data still describes an economy that is growing, even if growth has become more uneven. Employment remains steady, unemployment is still relatively low and corporate earnings have continued to come in at healthy levels.
That can sound contradictory: markets near highs, yet recession worries still present. The reason is that investors seem to be weighing a more likely path of slower growth and periodic volatility, not an immediate economic downturn. So far, market behavior suggests investors are not pricing in a recession. That does not eliminate risk—at some point, an economic downturn is inevitable—but grounding our approach in fundamentals and tailoring your plan to your goals carries far more weight than theoretical forecasting or trying to time markets.
Your Plan Is at the Core
Geopolitics is undoubtably a destabilizing force today, and energy prices may stay volatile for a while as the U.S., Iran and other countries broker a resolution to conflict. But the bigger picture still points to an economy that is slowing in places while continuing to grow overall. Markets remain near highs, earnings are still supportive, and the labor market continues to provide an important foundation for consumer health.
The most important question for us is not whether the next headline will be good or bad. It’s whether your plan still fits your life, your goals and the future you want to build. Periods like this can be a good time to review your allocation, your liquidity needs, and your comfort with risk. We’re not looking to react to every headline, but to make sure your plan can help you weather patches both smooth and rough. If recent events have raised concerns for you or changed how you are thinking about your portfolio, your RWA advisory team is here to help you talk it through.
Our Latest Media
On April 3, Barron’s Advisor published an interview with CIO Joseph “JP” Powers where he shared his perspectives on the conflict with Iran, evaluating risk and potential opportunity for investors, and how broad market and economic trends have shifted in recent months. Click here to read the article.
In the most recent The Human Side of Wealth podcast episode, “Design Your Legacy—Clarity, Control and Flexibility,” Andrew Busa, director of Private Wealth financial planning, is joined by Rawson Hubbell, director of estate and trust services, and Steve Reder, president of Private Wealth, to demystify estate planning and why it matters more than most people realize. The trio explain why everyone has an estate plan, whether it’s been created intentionally or not, and how thoughtful preparation can reduce cost, complexity and stress for loved ones. Listen now to understand how estate planning fits into a comprehensive financial strategy.
Transferring More Than Wealth
Turning Financial Literacy Into Legacy
Most parents who have built significant wealth spend considerable time thinking about how to protect it—the right trust structures, the right estate planning attorney, the right tax strategy. What they spend far less time thinking about is whether their children are ready to receive it.
In other words, the documents are usually fine. The conversations with heirs and the transfer of knowledge are lacking.
So here’s a first question worth sitting with: When is the last time you talked to your children about your financial life—not what they’ll inherit, but about how your family thinks about money?
There’s a meaningful difference between those two conversations. One centers on assets. The other centers on values. In our experience, the values conversation is how families establish the meaning behind wealth and build a legacy across generations.
Silence Is the Easy Path
Many parents stay quiet about money for reasons that feel responsible: They don’t want to undermine their children’s motivation, they’re not sure how much to reveal, or they’re simply uncomfortable discussing their own mortality. The irony is that silence often produces the exact outcomes they’re trying to prevent.
Without context for wealth, children who grow up surrounded by the visible signs of it—private schools, travel, a certain lifestyle—can either take wealth for granted or feel quietly anxious about it. Neither produces financial competence. And young adults who, without preparation, learn the full scope of a family’s wealth are often ill-equipped to handle it—financially or emotionally.
This is why we recommend an ongoing dialogue that begins early and deepens over time. Full financial disclosure can wait until the child has established a career identity and demonstrated some financial maturity, but values, expectations and the family’s relationship with money can be discussed openly and often.
Here’s another question: What do you want your children to understand about your wealth that you haven’t told them yet? What has been left unsaid because the right moment never seemed to arrive?
The origin story of your family’s wealth is among the most powerful tools you have as parents or grandparents. When children understand that wealth was created through specific choices, values and effort—rather than accumulated passively—they’re far more likely to treat it as something worth protecting.
The Benefits of Work Experience
There’s a version of affluent parenting that tries to spare children from financial stress but ends up sparing them from valuable experiences and learning opportunities. For example, time in the workplace can be an early training ground. It isn’t about the paycheck but about developing accountability.
So, consider this: Have your children held a job where their performance affected someone else’s business?
Young people can gain priceless self-knowledge from discovering what they’re capable of when the safety net isn’t visible. This helps make inherited wealth an asset rather than a substitute for identity.
Giving as Financial Education
Our experience helping clients pass on generational wealth has shown us an important truth time and again: Values don’t transfer through documents—they transfer through behavior, conversation and example. Seeing what their parents do with money is more instructive than anything a child may read or be told.
Ask yourself: Do your children see you give thoughtfully? Do they understand why you support the causes you support? Have they ever been involved in a family decision about money—even a small one?
Think of philanthropy as hands-on practice for responsible wealth management. Having young adults research organizations, evaluate impact and make giving recommendations builds exactly the skills that wealth stewardship requires: due diligence, long-term thinking and a sense of responsibility for something beyond themselves.
Where To Begin
If these questions have surfaced gaps, taking a few concrete steps with your family can help:
- Have the origin story conversation. Tell your children how the wealth was built—including the failures.
- Introduce your advisors. Let your children build their own relationships with your wealth management team before they need to.
- Create structured giving. Establish a small family philanthropic fund and let your children direct it.
- Be open to learning from your children. Just as you impart values, what can your children teach you about wealth and its potential?
Financial literacy is the foundation—but it’s only part of how you can help the next generation. The harder question, and the one that determines whether heirs thrive rather than simply receive, is how to develop the financial independence and sense of purpose to make wealth work for them. Success could mean your children become more financially or business savvy than you are and revitalize your family’s legacy. We’ll explore these concepts further in an upcoming newsletter article—stay tuned!
If you have questions in the meantime or would like to enlist your advisory team to help implement some of the suggestions above, please get in touch.
Health Care in Retirement: Planning for One of Life’s Biggest Transitions
Retirement Savings and Spending
As retirement approaches, most planning conversations focus on when to stop working and how income from savings and investments will replace your steady paycheck. One topic that often receives less attention, but deserves more, is health care. For pre-retirees, health coverage is one of the most complex and consequential transitions of retirement, and it’s an area where planning can significantly reduce future stress.
The Cost Reality
Health care is a recurring line item in retirement, not a one‑time expense. Premiums, deductibles, prescriptions and out‑of‑pocket costs tend to rise over time. And they often increase faster than general inflation. Even with Medicare, retirees shoulder meaningful ongoing expenses, which makes it important to plan for health care as part of an annual retirement budget rather than as a distant future problem.
Estimates vary widely based on age and health factors, but according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), a healthy 65-year-old couple that retired in 2025 would need to have saved $405,000 to have a 90% chance of covering health care costs over their lifetimes. If prescription drug prices move higher, that figure rises to $469,000.
Your goal with planning is to understand the range of potential costs and build appropriate flexibility into a financial plan. This can help ensure health care expenses don’t crowd out other priorities later on.
Retiring Before Medicare Kicks In: The Coverage Gap
For some people, like executives and business owners, the biggest health care challenge isn’t Medicare—it’s bridging to Medicare.
Eligibility begins at age 65. Retiring earlier creates a coverage gap that must be filled thoughtfully. Options may include COBRA, private insurance through the marketplace or employer‑sponsored retiree coverage if it’s available. Each choice comes with trade-offs related to cost, coverage and duration. The “right” option for you often depends on health needs, household income and how long the gap is expected to last.
This is also where employer negotiations can matter. In some cases, benefits continuation, partial premium subsidies or phased‑retirement arrangements can meaningfully reduce out‑of‑pocket costs in the years leading up to Medicare.
Medicare Decisions and Income Interactions
Planning doesn’t stop once Medicare begins. Choices around supplemental coverage, prescription plans and provider access can all influence long‑term costs and predictability. Income also plays a role. Higher‑income households may face Medicare premium surcharges, known as IRMAA, which are based on income from prior years.
While these surcharges are not uncommon for pre‑retirees with strong earnings or liquidity events, they are often manageable with advance planning. The key is awareness. You need to understand how income timing, retirement dates, and one‑time events like bonuses or asset sales interact with Medicare rules.
Where Planning Adds Value
Good health care planning is about coordinating health coverage with retirement timing, tax strategy, cash flow and benefit elections. Decisions made in the final working years often echo throughout retirement, especially when flexibility narrows later on.
For pre‑retirees, the most effective strategy is to treat health care planning as part of the broader retirement transition, not a last‑minute checkbox. When done well, planning can reduce uncertainty and preserve flexibility, allowing retirees to focus on what they’re retiring to, not just what they’re leaving behind.
For those who are already retired, health care planning remains just as relevant. Coverage choices evolve, income fluctuates and medical needs change over time. Ongoing planning can help you navigate annual Medicare decisions, manage rising out‑of‑pocket costs and coordinate health care spending with broader cash flow and tax strategies.
Your RWA team can also help anticipate how changes like unexpected medical events, shifts in investment income or evolving family needs may affect long‑term plans.
If you have any questions at all about your health care in retirement, we’re here to help.
The information set forth in this communication is presented by RWA Wealth Partners, LLC (“RWA”). The contents are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended as investment, legal or tax advice. Please consult with your investment, legal or tax advisor concerning any specific questions you may have. Past results are not indicative of future performance. The historical return of markets generally and of individual asset classes or individual securities may not be an accurate predictor of future returns of those markets, asset classes or individual securities. RWA does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of any sourced data in this communication.
The information set forth in this communication is presented by RWA Wealth Partners, LLC (“RWA Wealth Partners”). The contents are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended as investment, legal or tax advice. Please consult with your investment, legal or tax advisor concerning any specific questions you may have. Past results are not indicative of future performance. The historical return of markets generally and of individual asset classes or individual securities may not be an accurate predictor of future returns of those markets, asset classes or individual securities. RWA Wealth Partners does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of any sourced data in this communication.
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